Rishi Sunak seeks to claim a Rwanda win

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By ROSA PRINCE
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Good Thursday morning. This is Rosa Prince.
STOP THE GLOATS: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak holds a press conference this morning where he’ll no doubt indulge in a little light gloating after his flagship Safety of Rwanda Bill sailed through the Commons Wednesday night. But while a threatened rebellion from the right may have melted away like the January snow, it’s not all good news for the PM, with festering disquiet on his back benches and a new poll putting the Tories down to just 20 percent of the vote.
First the presser: Hacks have been invited to gather in Downing Street mid morning, with the PM due to speak in the briefing room at No. 9. Rest assured, there will be no lecterns emerging in the street; Sunak is not, repeat not, calling a general election. Instead he’ll say a few words about immigration policy going forward now the bill has passed its third reading in the Commons and then take questions from the media.
The bigger picture … is that while the bill passed with only 11 Tories rebelling, well short of the numbers required for an upset, the past few days have been bruising for Sunak. He has lost two deputy party chairs and a parliamentary aide, and handed a load of ammunition to Labour after dozens of his own MPs, including former ministers, declared that his Rwanda plan will not work.  
An even worse day: And if the PM emerges weaker from the week’s events, so too does the right, with many wondering how the self-styled gangsters went from launching the largest rebellion of Sunak’s reign on a series of amendments to a comprehensive defeat on the bill’s third reading in the space of 24 hours. The Express’ David Maddox has some answers in his helpful analysis piece.
How it went down: After a final meeting of around 45 MPs from various of the five Tory family groupings, it became clear that most of those in the rebel camp were queasy at the prospect of voting down such a core piece of legislation. Most baulked at the prospect of triggering the nuclear button which could have brought down Sunak or the government or both. Thus the bill passed with a comfortable majority of 44.
Roll call: The remaining Spartans opposing the bill were: former Home Secretary Suella Braverman … Bill Cash … Miriam Cates … Simon Clarke … Sarah Dines … James Duddridge … Mark Francois … Andrea Jenkyns … former Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick … David Jones … and Danny Kruger. Abstentions, including those who may have been slipped by the whips, were Adam Afriyie … former Tory Deputy Chair Lee Anderson … Steve Brine … Natalie Elphicke … Marcus Fysh … Jonathan Gullis … John Hayes … Gordon Henderson … Adam Holloway … Tom Hunt … Alicia Kearns … Craig Mackinlay … former Prime Minister Theresa May … Caroline Nokes … Jesse Norman … John Redwood … Andrew Rosindell … and former Defense Secretary Ben Wallace.
SERIOUS PERSON UPDATE: Newly resigned Lee Anderson told employer GB News he had planned to vote against the bill, but opted not to on the high point of principle that … “the Labour lot were all giggling and laughing and taking the mick.” A logic which, if adopted by all Tory backbenchers, should secure Sunak a rebellion-free 2024.
GOOD NEWS DIDN’T LAST LONG: Sunak didn’t have long to relish his victory. About half an hour after the bill passed, the Times front page dropped with the news of a YouGov poll putting the Tories on just 20 percent, 27 points behind Labour. Almost as alarming for the Conservatives, Reform is up to 12 percent. The paper has a good explainer on the repercussions of the vote for Sunak, while the i quotes right-wingers who say their attention will now shift to encouraging Sunak to pledge to withdraw from the European Court of Human Rights, with pressure mounting if the Rwanda flights do not take off by spring.
PEER PRESSURE: And if you thought the bill had a rough ride in the Commons, next up it’s the Lords. My colleague Esther Webber has a preview of what to expect, and reports there is a hardened band who are willing to try to throw it out altogether. Barrister and crossbencher Alex Carlile tells her “there will be significant attempts to kill the bill completely” which he would support because “we’re talking about international treaty obligations and the reputation of the British legal and parliamentary system.”
But, but, but: In practice, peers are unlikely to scupper the bill altogether. This is because of the Labour Party’s self-imposed protocol that it does not seek to throw out legislation passed by MPs, making it much harder for the bill’s opponents to reach the necessary numbers. A Labour official confirmed to Esther it would stand by this protocol despite the highly contentious nature of the bill.
In the meantime: Peers can make life pretty uncomfortable for the government. The bill is now not expected to complete all stages until the end of March — which may be a little different to what people expected when Sunak announced “emergency legislation.” A Labour peer tells Esther they are preparing “to get into the trenches” on the bill, while a Conservative peer said “we could see the government try to keep everyone up into the middle of the night to see if they can get it through.”
Questions, questions: Speaking to POLITICO’S Power Play podcast, Foreign Secretary David Cameron said he anticipated the bill would make it through the upper chamber, where he now dwells. “I’m sure [the Lords] will have lots of questions, but I don’t think it should hold it up,” he told my colleague Anne McElvoy. Asked whether flights to Rwanda will leave before the general election, expected in the fall, Cameron said “I hope they will take place.” Note, that’s not a “yes they will.” 
Heart in the right place: The foreign secretary described the Rwanda scheme as “unorthadox” but insisted “My heart is absolutely in it.” More here.
MOST UNCIVIL: My Playbook colleague Emilio Casalicchio wrote at length in Playbook PM Wednesday about the government’s last minute wheeze to give civil servants what he described as a “Nuremberg-esque fig leaf about following orders,” in a bid to encourage them to accept ministers’ instructions to ignore injunctions issued by the ECHR to halt deportations. Former top diplomat Jeremy Greenstock told LBC’s Andrew Marr civil servants in this quandary should consider “taking legal advice.”
Already selected: The Guardian reckons the first 100 asylum seekers have already been selected for deportation to Rwanda.
NIGEL WEIGHS IN: Asked what he made of remarks by Rwandan President Paul Kagame Wednesday offering to give the U.K. dosh it spent setting up the deportation plan back if no migrants are, um, deported there, Nigel Farage told ITV’s Peston show: “When even Rwanda are offering to give you the money back, you know the game is up.”
UP CLOSE AND PERSONAL: ITV News Deputy Pol Ed Anushka Asthana spent three months shadowing Labour leader Keir Starmer for an ITV special which airs tonight, and has come up with plenty of meaty news lines. Asthana wrote of her glimpses behind the curtain: “I saw him backstage at Labour party conference in October, as he waited for the biggest speech of his political career, on his way to the Emirates to watch his beloved Arsenal, after the King’s speech, in Dubai at Cop 28, and as he criss-crossed the country campaigning for votes.” Watch the full program, “Keir Starmer: Up Close — Tonight,” at 8.30 p.m. There’s another special featuring Rishi Sunak in the works too. 
Government in waiting: It’s official — after Sunak intimated he was willing to allow Labour to begin access talks, Asthana revealed that Starmer has now gone ahead and formally written to head of the civil service Simon Case to request they begin. This means official contacts will now take place between Labour frontbenchers and the civil servants who will put their policies into action should the party win the general election. My colleagues Dan Bloom and Aggie Chambre had a great piece on the nuts and bolts of how this works last month. 
What a loser: Starmer says in the ITV program he never believed Jeremy Corbyn would win the 2019 general election, despite serving in his shadow cabinet. He says he felt a “responsibility” to serve the magic grandpa as shadow Brexit secretary.
And more: On Nigel Farage: “To be honest, he’s not in my head in the same way as in the prime minister’s head. But I do recognize that I think the vast majority of people in the United Kingdom want to know that there are controls over who comes in and out of the country.” On being called boring: “Well, if in the end that is the only bit of mud left to sling, then I’m pretty comfortable with this.” On his kids: “They’re teenagers … it’s in the job description of a 16-year-old to do stupid things. I mean, they wouldn’t be normal teenagers if they didn’t do something stupid at some point.”
FIGHTING BACK: Following Rishi Sunak’s jibe at PMQs about Starmer representing the now proscribed Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir in a legal case against the German government — “when I see a group chanting ‘jihad’ on our streets I ban them – he invoices them” — the Tory party launched an oh so clever attack ad based on the TV show “Better Call Saul.” The Telegraph has a write-up.
The response: Handily, Starmer addresses just this issue in his ITV interview, saying: “If they want to attack me for decisions when I was director of public prosecutions, we had 7,000 staff, we made nearly a million decisions a year. Will there be mistakes there? Of course there will, but there’ll be no smoking gun, no skeletons in the closet.”
ADVICE FOR STARMER: Scotland First Minister Humza Yousaf has some advice for Starmer. Speaking on Nick Robinson’s Political Thinking podcast, the SNP leader said his Labour counterpart needed a “bold and radical plan.” He went on: “You know, you’re going to be the next prime minister … have backbone. Be bold, be radical, don’t dump all your policies.”
Worst of times: Yousaf also discussed the ongoing probe into SNP finances, saying: “The police investigation has been one of the most difficult times for the party. There has clearly been an impact in terms of how we were perceived by the public and issues of trust.”
GREEN AND PLEASANT LAND: The main Labour story today is Shadow Environment Secretary Steve Reed’s pledge to “reverse the Conservative destruction of the countryside.” He will produce new research suggesting the government is failing to meet its own environment and nature targets. In words briefed overnight, Reed said: “The Conservatives are destroying our beautiful countryside.”
CCHQ will be poring over this one: The Labour Climate and Environment Forum has published a collection of essays about the party’s £28 billion Green Prosperity Plan by authors including Reed and PPC Miatta Fahnbulleh.
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ON THE SLOPES: Jeremy Hunt joins the jamboree in the Alps that is the World Economic Forum gathering in Davos, where he’ll pass the time championing U.K. excellence in science and tech, according to a Treasury briefing. The chancellor will host a panel on Britain’s growth industries, with investors including reps from Microsoft, OpenAI and Pfizer, before holding a series of meet and greets with global CEOs. 
Jezza vs. Rach: Hunt’s oppo Rachel Reeves has been swanning round Davos for a few days now — and Labour has been making the most of it. Hunt will be hoping to make up for lost time as he becomes the first British chancellor since 2019 to attend the gathering of the great and (not so?) good. 
He said: In words issued overnight, Hunt said: “I’ll be in Davos to tell the world that Britain, a nation of great innovation, is on the up and open for business. We boast some of the best and brightest businesses in sectors of the future like digital technology and life sciences. It’s these areas of strength that are going to drive growth across the UK economy in years to come.” Responding, Shadow Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, who’s also on the slopes, said: “After 14 years of economic failure, the Labour Party is now the party of business in British politics.”
MORE FROM REEVES: The shadow chancellor’s schmoozathon continues today; she’s attending a breakfast organized by entrepreneur Sriram Krishnan, who is in the process of bringing U.S. venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz to the U.K. There, she’ll munch croissants with a group of West Coast tech founders who either invest in or are considering investing in Britain. That one might sting for tech bro Rishi Sunak, who has praised Andreessen Horowitz in the past.
Casually drop this one in the conversation: The bros will no doubt be delighted to read Reeves’ interview with the Telegraph’s Szu Ping Chan, in which she promised to ensure “success is celebrated,” which the paper is interpreting as code for tax cuts, including for high earners. Her words make the front of the Telegraph, which, by the by, relegates Rishi Sunak’s big Rwanda win to an inside page.
Then it’s on to: An inward investment meeting with business leaders hosted by Bank of America, accompanied by Reynolds, who has the morning round (timings below). The Times has more on the Reeves charm offensive.
ALSO GLUGGING BACK THE GLUHWEIN AT DAVOS: Is David Cameron. On POLITICO’s Power Play podcast, he described his time as PM as “a good apprenticeship for being foreign minister,” and claimed the most changed area of foreign policy since his interregnum was EU relations: “A lot of the anger and disappointment on both sides has drained away and there’s a quite a rational relationship, where, as I put it, Britain is the friend, neighbor, and partner, but not member.”
A life is a life: Turning to the Middle East, Cameron described his shock at stories coming out of Gaza related by British embassy staff in Cairo: ”What they’ve seen, what they’ve experienced, and the loved ones they’ve lost, and the family members they’ve seen killed — you know, a life is a life. I feel deeply about this, but I’m a very practical person and I want to know, how do we bring this to an end?” 
No cease-fire: Defending Britain’s refusal to call for an immediate cease-fire, Cameron added: “That just wouldn’t have worked because if you want a two-state solution, if you want a sustainable cease-fire, you can’t ask the Israelis to have a two state solution with the people who perpetrated October 7 in command in Gaza.” You can hear the full pod here and read all about it here.
SPLASHING THE CASH: London Mayor Sadiq Khan announces the Greater London Authority budget for this year, including £88.4 million additional funding for policing. A member of Team Khan said: “The mayor is stepping in while the Tories continue to chronically underfund our vital public services in London.”
IN BUSINESS: Increasing the democratization of business in the U.K. should be guided by principles including fiscal realism, a Bright Blue report argues, after interviewing Tory MPs including Bob Blackman, Jo Gideon and John Penrose.
SW1 EVENTS: LabourList hosts an online discussion in partnership with Polity Books to launch Labour MP Jon Cruddas‘ book A Century of Labour with other speakers including former New Labour adviser Patrick Diamond and author Nan Sloane at 6.30 p.m.
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with Cabinet Office questions followed by Commons leader Penny Mordaunt’s business statement … and then the main business is a motion on the prevention and suppression of terrorism and two backbench debates on the loan charge and HS2 compensation. Tory MP Shaun Bailey has the adjournment debate on governance of Sandwell Metropolitan Borough Council.
WESTMINSTER HALL: Debates from 1.30 p.m. on the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (led by Tory MP Andrew Lewer, Labour’s Virendra Sharma and SNP MP Martyn Day).
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 11 a.m. with oral questions on staffing levels in care homes, the Private Rented Sector Ombudsman Service and the Taiwanese elections … and then the main business is a debate on infectious disease threats to biosecurity, a short debate on mitigating climate change, a debate on intergovernmental relations within the U.K. and orders and regulations relating to the Terrorism Act 2000 (Proscribed Organizations) (Amendment) Order 2024.
**YOUR ONLINE INVITATION: Tonight at 7:30 p.m. CET, POLITICO hosts its annual party in Davos. Our very own Suzanne Lynch will run a joint interview with Businessman Andrew Forrest and Australian Ambassador to the U.S. Kevin Rudd, and you’re invited to watch it live! Register now and share your thoughts using #POLITICODavosParty**
DEVO DECISIONS: Powers over policing, justice and rail should be transferred to Wales, the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales says, though it doesn’t recommend hiving off broadcasting or benefits.
The reaction: Welsh Secretary David TC Davies said: “Wales needs more nurses and teachers, not more politicians and powers,” while Shadow Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens said: “Labour is the party of devolution and we are committed to reinforcing the status of the Senedd, strengthening intergovernmental working and pushing power out of Westminster and into the hands of communities.”
DISAPPOINTED: In a statement issued overnight, Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris expressed disappointment that the Stormont assembly remains in limbo amid major strikes today. He described as “fair and generous” a £3 billion package offered by the U.K. government, effectively rejected after the Democratic Unionist Party blocked the return of power sharing ahead of a deadline today. Heaton-Harris said: “The people of Northern Ireland deserve local political leadership from representatives they have elected to govern on their behalf.”
GOVE’S GRILLING: Leveling-Up Secretary Michael Gove is probed by Holyrood’s Finance and Public Administration Committee about replacing EU structural funds in Scotland from 10.30 a.m. — the National has more details.
IN THE MIDDLE EAST: Yemen’s Houthi rebels targeted a U.S. cargo ship with a kamikaze drone 70 miles off the coast of Aden, a city in Yemen — the Guardian has further information.
IN AMERICA: Campaigning ahead of the New Hampshire primary, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump declared: “I think, cognitively, I’m better than I was 20 years ago. I don’t know why.”
Home Office Minister Chris Philp broadcast round: GB News (6.45 a.m.) … Times Radio (7 a.m.) … Sky News (7.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Today program (8.10 a.m.) … GMB (8.30 a.m.).
Shadow Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds broadcast round: LBC News (7.05 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.20 a.m.) … Sky News (7.45 a.m.).
Also on GB News Breakfast: Former Tory SpAd Fred de Fossard (7 a.m.).
Also on Sky News Breakfast: Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown (8.30 a.m.).
TalkTV Breakfast: Former Tory SpAd Charlie Rowley (7.05 a.m.) … Tory peer James Arbuthnot (8.10 a.m.).
Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Tory MP Stephen Hammond … Lib Dem MP Wendy Chamberlain … journalist Paul Mason … the Mail’s Inaya Folarin Iman.
Mariella Frostrup (Times Radio): Foreign Secretary David Cameron (1.15 p.m.).
POLITICO UK: U.K. House of Lords readies for trench warfare over Rwanda deportations.
Daily Express: Kate “doing well” after surgery but recovery to take weeks.
Daily Mail: Let’s pray that they’re both ok.
Daily Mirror: I’ll be there for Kate.
Daily Star: Kate’s op.
Financial Times: Global sell-off as U.K. and eurozone warning signs dash rate cut hopes.
i: Revealed — new Post Office IT scandal claims, as convicted postmasters plead for help.
Metro: Royals’ double health shock.
The Daily Telegraph: Hospital surgery for king and princess.
The Guardian: Sunak’s Rwanda bill survives as Tory revolt melts away — for now.
The Independent: Defiant PM faces down rebels to win crunch Rwanda vote.
The Sun: Royals rocked by Kate op.
The Times: Rwanda revolt withers away.
POLITICO Europe: The corruption trap — how Europe’s establishment made the far right great again.
The New Statesman: Trump’s revenge — Sarah Baxter on how the former president is set on destroying his enemies and American democracy.
The Spectator: Dry Britain — Henry Jeffreys on how the country sobered up.
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Sunny and a gentle breeze. Highs of 3C.
SPOTTED … at the Holocaust Educational Trust’s parliamentary reception in the Terrace Pavilion to mark Holocaust Memorial Day: Leveling-Up Secretary Michael Gove … Commons leader Penny Mordaunt … Labour leader Keir Starmer … Shadow Science Secretary Peter Kyle … ministers Tom Tugendhat and Jane Scott … shadow ministers Ellie Reeves, Stephanie Peacock and Steve McCabe … Lib Dem leader Ed Davey … MPs Bob Blackman, Sajid Javid, Nicola Richards, Brandon Lewis, Margaret Hodge, Harriet Harman, Ian Paisley Jr and Kirsten Oswald … peers Ros Altmann, Eric Pickles, John Woodcock, Ian Austin and John Mann … Commons Speaker Lindsay Hoyle … SpAd Asher Glynn … hacks Ben Kentish and Tamara Cohen … former MPs Luciana Berger and Louise Ellman … former SpAd Salma Shah … Deputy Ambassador of Germany Rüdiger Bohn … and Holocaust survivor Manfred Goldberg.
Also spotted … at Warner Bros. Discovery’s parliamentary reception in Speaker’s House featuring the original Wonka and Barbie costumes, the Premier League and Premiership Rugby trophies and a WWE belt: Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer … Shadow Culture Secretary Thangam Debbonaire … Culture, Media and Sport Committee Chair Caroline Dinenage … Financial Secretary to the Treasury Nigel Huddleston … Shadow Culture Minister Chris Bryant … Tory MP Dean Russell … Deputy Speaker Nigel Evans … Ofcom Chair Michael Grade … the U.S. Embassy’s Cultural Attaché Pamella DeVolder … chef Tom Kerridge … broadcaster Richard Hammond … GK Strategy’s Scott Dodsworth and Louise Allen … and Warner Bros. Discovery’s Andrew Georgiou, Bruce Campbell, Alexa Verveer and Lisa McGuirk.
Also spotted … at a New Year drinks reception in the lavish River Room complete with Pugin wallpaper hosted by Tory peer Timothy Kirkhope after Lord Speaker John McFall had to return to Scotland: peers Tina Stowell, Clive Hollick, Stephen Benn, Kate Parminter, Julia King and John Krebs … the Mirror’s Mikey Smith … the i’s Hugo Gye … the Observer’s Toby Helm … the House’s Francis Elliott and Sophie Church … Repubblica’s Antonello Guerrera … Channel 5’s Andy Bell … Times Radio’s Kate McCann … the FT’s Clive Cookson and Michael Peel … the Telegraph’s Joe Pinkstone … the Mail’s Calum Muirhead … the Metro’s Katherine Fidler … the BBC’s Pallab Ghosh … the New Scientist’s Alex Wilkins and Joshua Howgego … Nature’s Emma Stoye … Lords’ Head of Mress and media Owen Williams … and the Lord Speaker’s Senior Communications Officer Andrew Woodcock.
NEW GIGS: Alexander Baker has started at the Legatum Institute as a research associate … and Elizabeth Seger joins Demos in February as director of its digital research hub CASM.
DON’T MISS: Channel 5 News‘ Bradley Harris presents a series of special reports from the Rwandan capital Kigali, looking at whether the government’s plans will stop the boats, from 5 p.m.
NOW WATCH: The proliferation of nuclear weapons across the globe, including the strategy behind the U.K.’s nuclear deterrent, is investigated by Jane Corbin in Nuclear Armageddon: How Close Are We? on BBC Two at 9 p.m.
NOAH’S CULTURE FIX: The Wild Men: The Remarkable Story of Britain’s First Labour Government by House of Commons Library Clerk David Torrance is published by Bloomsbury Continuum.
NOW READ: In the latest issue of the New Statesman, Anoosh Chakelian argues the Post Office scandal is emblematic of a Britain losing its faith in fair play.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.
WRITING PLAYBOOK FRIDAY MORNING: Rosa Prince.
BIRTHDAYS: Taoiseach Leo Varadkar … Wales Minister Fay Jones … former Tory and Change U.K. MP Heidi Allen … former FT Editor Lionel Barber … i Pol Ed Hugo Gye … Tory peer David Howell … retired Tory peer Terence Higgins … former Principal Private Secretary to Margaret Thatcher Clive Whitmore … Evening Standard Editor Dylan Jones.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Jack Lahart, reporter Noah Keate and producer Seb Starcevic.
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